Nigeria: Death Claims the Life of a Patient Leader and President

A Small but Important Fact for My Readers:

Someday, you are going to die.*

Now of course death is not something that I would wish upon anyone but the simple fact is that all human beings must someday say goodbye to this world. Unfortunately, for Nigeria’s President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, death came calling a bit too soon (he was only 58 years old). This post is about this gentle and patient leader of Africa’s most populous country, a man who for many of you was somewhat of a mystery on the international stage of world leaders, and a man who was very much a mystery for the nation that he led since being elected in 2007, especially during the last months of his terminal illness.

Some of you may ask, “Why bother paying any attention to Nigeria?” since much of what we hear and read in the mainstream media regarding this country is about the endemic corruption of its politicians and business elite that services the grinding poverty suffered by the majority of Nigerians, the seemingly never-ending turmoil and violence between people in the Muslim north and Christian south of the country, and the militant uprisings, kidnappings, murder, and environmental destruction taking place in the troubled oil-rich Niger Delta region.

I would say the following to doubters and cynics re: Nigeria’s potential and future:

Let us not forget the strategic importance of the people of Nigeria to the world, a people who account for more than 22% of the 800 million people who live in Sub-Saharan Africa, and let us not forget the importance of Nigeria’s abundant natural resources (oil, gas, agriculture, fisheries) and the ingenuity and drive of Nigeria’s most valuable natural resource, its people.

When I think of Nigeria and what Nigerians have contributed to the modern world, I often think of the many Nigerian bloggers, writers, and journalists who have made such a huge contribution to the success of open media and online journalism, and I think about international icons like the scholar and Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka and the World Bank Managing Director Ngozi Oknonjo-Iweala. I treasure the wonderful communication that Nigerians like these “leaders” have so selflessly contributed to all of us in a desperate effort to educate the world about Nigeria’s dynamic people and their beautiful country on Africa’s western coast. This post is for them.

Note*: My lead sentence is borrowed from the opening paragraphs of “The Book Thief” by Markus Zusak (Doubleday/Black Swan 2007).

The Passing of a Gentle Man and a Turning Point in the Modern History of Nigeria

Yesterday I left my condolences on the passing of President Yar’Adua in a comment at the blog of a friend and fellow blogger who hails from Nigeria and to my surprise it was echoed in a Global Voices roundup of Nigerian bloggers who were expressing their thoughts and feelings about the death of their president. Granted I have not been following news and developments out of Nigeria as much as I would like to over the past year, but my impression of President Yar’Adua is generally positive in comparison to my sentiments toward most of the country’s past political leaders and military dictators who had ruled Nigeria for much of the past 50 years since the end of colonial rule. Here is an excerpt of what I had to say at my friend Imankoya’s blog “Grandiose Parlor”:

“My condolences on the death of Nigeria’s President Umaru Yar’Adua. He may not have been able to accomplish all that he set out to do at the beginning of his administration, but he was able show the world that Nigerians can overcome generations of misrule and plunder by former rulers and dictators, that the country is making progress in a number of important areas (including responsible governance), that endemic corruption and cronyism by politicians and powerful business people can be defeated albeit it is slow and complicated process, and that the country Nigeria is firmly on the road to peace and democracy despite the setbacks we have witnessed during his term in office.”

As I researched news and blog posts about the death of Nigeria’s president I came across a very interesting analysis on the present state of political affairs in Nigeria written by Richard Joseph and Alexandra Gillies for Current History magazine. Here is an excerpt from what the authors had to say in the article published just a week before President Yar’Adua’s untimely death:

Nigeria: Season of Uncertainty
Current History Magazine – May 2010 issue (cross-published at allAfrica.com)

"Nothing," wrote Reuben Abati, the editor of Nigeria's The Guardian, "can be more tragic than the present season of uncertainty in which Nigeria has found itself." Indeed, in recent months the country has experienced an extraordinary and often surreal political drama seemingly scripted by a writer of fantasies.

On November 23, 2009, Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua was flown to Saudi Arabia for emergency medical treatment. Confusion swirled about his condition, though the immediate problem was reported to be pericarditis, an inflammation of tissues around his heart.

When, on Christmas Day, a young Nigerian named Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried (but failed) to ignite an explosive device on an airliner that was approaching the airport in Detroit, Michigan, no Nigerian head of state was available to engage with the US government over this alarming event.

Following the attempted attack, the United States placed Nigeria on a terrorism watch list of 14 nations whose air travelers were subjected to increased security screening. (On April 2, that watch list was discarded in favor of a different set of policies.)

Ill-fated politics

Yet, as serious as these developments were, a more intense drama for Nigerians was unfolding in the nation's capital, Abuja. For a harrowing three months, this country of approximately 150 million people was without a captain at the helm.
Yar'Adua had been elected president in April 2007. He owed his position to the political achievements of two individuals: his older brother, Shehu Yar'Adua; and Olusegun Obasanjo, who served on two occasions as head of state. Shehu Yar'Adua had been Obasanjo's deputy when the latter led a military government from 1976 to 1979. The two were accused in 1995 by Sani Abacha, the military dictator at that time, of planning his overthrow. Shehu Yar'Adua was later murdered in prison, but Obasanjo survived and was elected president in 1999.

When Obasanjo in May 2006 failed in an effort to amend the constitution and thus secure a third term in office, he installed as the 2007 presidential candidate of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) the younger Yar'Adua, then the governor of the small northern state of Katsina. Obasanjo proceeded to manipulate Nigeria's political and electoral machinery to ensure Yar'Adua's victory. The outcome was disputed by several losing candidates but was upheld by the Supreme Court in December 2008.

Yar'Adua in some ways resembled another president from northern Nigeria, Shehu Shagari, whom Obasanjo had also shepherded into office, in 1979.

Shagari, a well-meaning patrician, was unable to control the plunderers around him. Military putschists ended his tenure in December 1983, shortly after he had begun a second term in the wake of flawed and chaotic elections.

But Yar'Adua, a northern successor to the southern Obasanjo, was handicapped not only politically but physically. Yar'Adua had been known to suffer from kidney disease even as governor of Katsina. At the time of the Christmas bombing attempt in the United States, the president had been absent for a month, receiving medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, but had not transferred power to his vice president, Goodluck Jonathan.

Nigeria did not even have an ambassador to the United States who could be summoned for consultations, since the US government had earlier rejected the Nigerian designee.

On January 12, 2010, Yar'Adua, most likely provoked by press reports of his dire physical condition, granted a telephone interview to the BBC.

He spoke in a weak voice of his intention to return to Nigeria as soon as his health permitted, but he did not mention any transfer of authority.

Nigeria's 1999 constitution provides two ways for power to be temporarily transferred to the vice president. The simplest mode is the transmission of a letter from the president to the National Assembly informing that body of his absence. The second requires the Federal Executive Council (the cabinet) to appoint, together with the Senate, a medical panel to provide a report on the president. If he is found unable to execute his duties, the vice president is made acting president. Neither of these constitutional paths was taken.

To adopt the term widely used in Nigeria, a "cabal" that consisted of the president's wife, Turai Yar'Adua, along with a few ministers and close political allies, worked to block a full transfer of power to Vice President Jonathan. Meanwhile, throughout the eerie interregnum, Jonathan presided over cabinet meetings that made decisions of questionable legality. Bullying the cabinet and the nation during this political parenthesis was the attorney general and minister of justice, Michael Aondoakaa, who defended Yar'Adua's authority and justified not making Jonathan the officially acting president.

These maneuvers alarmingly recalled the political gyrations that preceded Sani Abacha's assumption of power in November 1993. Then, Moshood Abiola, elected to the presidency in June of that year, was blocked from taking office and subsequently imprisoned, eventually dying behind bars. This time, however, the armed forces did not intervene, either by fully assuming power as they had done several times, or by imposing a military-civilian diarchy, as they did briefly in 1993.

Back from the brink

February 9 and 10, 2010, may be remembered as the days when the Nigerian nation pulled back from a precipice along which it had tottered for more than 11 weeks. Following unanimous votes in the Senate and House of Representatives, Jonathan was declared acting president, a decision subsequently confirmed by the cabinet.

Senior legislators found an ingenious way around constitutional obstacles by citing a "doctrine of necessity," never before invoked in Nigeria. The BBC interview with Yar'Adua, they claimed, fulfilled the constitutional requirement that a letter be transmitted to the National Assembly, albeit via modern technology. Jonathan therefore became acting president through an appointment process that deviated from the two paths set forth in the constitution. One of his first acts was to remove Aondoakaa from his ministry and from the commanding position he had assumed during Yar'Adua's absence.

"Goodluck Jonathan" could be a name invented by whatever mischievous deities look over the Nigerian nation. He had the good luck to be deputy governor of the oil-rich delta state Bayelsa in 2005, when the governor, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, was apprehended by the London Metropolitan Police at Heathrow Airport with suitcases filled with state money.

(Tragicomically, Alamieyeseigha skipped bail and returned to Nigeria allegedly by disguising himself as a woman.)

At that time, Obasanjo was using Nigeria's anti-corruption authorities to prosecute governors who crossed him, or crossed whatever line he inserted between the permissible and non-permissible theft of public funds. Jonathan stepped in as governor when Alamieyeseigha became the target of one such prosecution. It was also fortuitous for Jonathan to be elevated to the vice presidency - Obasanjo orchestrated his selection as Yar'Adua's running mate in the 2007 election.

In the early hours of February 24, 2010, Yar'Adua was hurriedly flown back to Nigeria by air ambulance. Six of his cabinet ministers had arrived in Saudi Arabia earlier that day, ostensibly to thank the Saudi government for looking after him but really - as the third high-level Nigerian delegation to visit that country during the crisis - in the hopes of seeing their ailing president. Jonathan was kept in the dark about Yar'Adua's precipitous return, which involved the alarming deployment of a military brigade in Abuja.

For almost two days, Nigerians experienced renewed uncertainty, especially since the first public statement by Yar'Adua's spokesman referred to Jonathan as vice, not acting, president. It seemed as if a fierce struggle over presidential authority would erupt. American and British diplomats quickly released strong cautionary statements.
Another announcement on behalf of the still unseen president, on February 26, acknowledged Jonathan as acting president and declared that all government officials should report to him. That communication lessened but did not completely disperse the constitutional cloud over Nigeria's federal institutions. It did, however, reduce the political tensions and anxiety.

Nigeria's season of uncertainty is likely to persist for some time.

End excerpt from Nigeria: Season of Uncertainty
Read the complete analysis at allAfrica.com

The authors make it sound like quite a few shenanigans were going on in the background while Nigeria’s former president was struggling with a debilitating illness, especially the statement about “a cabal” of people attempting to manipulate the political and economic power in this nation of 150 million plus people. What was equally surprising in this article and the one that I reference below is that this was being orchestrated by President Yar’Adua’s closest political advisors and his grieving wife and widow, the (former) First Lady of Nigeria Turai Yar’Adua. Yikes!!

To help qualify some of the claims made by Richard Joseph and Alexandra Gillies in their article “Nigeria: Season of Uncertainty” I recommend reading statements attributed to one of Nigeria’s most prominent and outspoken defenders of human rights and free expression, Professor Wole Soyinka, in an article published to the Nigerian newspaper Vanguard on April 7th (cross-published at allAfrica.com):

Nigeria: Soyinka Urges Country to Save Yar’Adua from Turai
By Michael Eboh – April 7, 2010

Nobel laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka, has called for urgent measures by Nigerians to save ailing president Umaru Yar'Adua from some unscrupulous and selfish individuals, benefiting from his predicament. He noted that Yar'Adua's predicament has revealed that he is a victim of spousal abuse.

Speaking at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group's, NESG, Post-Annual General Meeting Lecture, in Lagos, Tuesday, with the theme, "Leadership and Followership as Shared Responsibility," Soyinka exonerated Yar'Adua from all the crises and controversies surrounding his health.

According to him, his meetings with Yar'Adua in the past revealed that he (Yar'Adua) is not capable of treating the country with disdain as is currently being presented through the various controversies surronding his health and visit of certain groups to him.

He said, "From my meetings with Yar'Adua, I see him as someone who is not capable of treating this country with contempt. His predicament is being worsened by the so-called cabal.

"The conduct of the people surrounding the president has turned the country into the laughing stock of the entire globe. Even the papers are having a field day on the issue of Nigeria's phantom president.

"Yar'Adua is surrounded by people who are insensitive about the plight of the Nigerian people. These people holding him hostage are unscrupulous insensitive and heartless.

"It is not the Nigerian people who prevented even Yar'Adua's own mother from seeing him, it is this cabal. They are flesh and blood but they have a lion's heart or so."If his situation takes a turn for the better, which everyone hopes for, it does not make any difference, whatsoever, to what has happened already. It does not take away from the fact that refusing his mother access to him, has made him a victim of spousal abuse.

End excerpt from the Nigerian Vanguard article___

Rest in Peace President Umara Yar’Adua, you certainly gave it your best and despite your ill health and the unscrupulous behavior of some of your closet advisors during your absence, your efforts to lead Nigeria in a fair and just manner were appreciated by many people around the globe. The new Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan will certainly have his hands full in Abuja for the next 11 months as the country prepares for the general election of 2011. Good Luck President Jonathan and good luck to the people of Nigeria as you progress down the long road of democratic change, responsible and effective governance, and improvements in the lives for all of the people of this vast West African nation.


Related news articles, editorials, blog posts, and other resources

Grandiose Parlor
Yar’Adua, Nigeria’s ailing president dies – 05 May 2010

African Loft
Nigeria: “My regime was better than now” – Babangida – 20 Apr 2010
Former Nigerian military leader, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB), gives an interview to the BBC News Hausa Service regarding his presidential ambitions

Black Looks
The man died - R.I.P. Yar'Adua by Sokari Ekine – 06 May 2010

Global Voices
Nigeria: Bloggers mourn death of president Yar’Adua by Ndesano Macha – 06 May 2010
Categories and Topics: Nigeria
The Republic of Niger ain’t sexy enough for headlines by Ndesanjo Macho
Niger is not Nigeria in case you didn’t know, although Nigeriens and Nigerians are first cousins.

allAfrica.com
Nigeria: Soyinka Urges Country to Save Yar'Adua From Turai (Vanguard) – 07 Apr 2010
Nigeria: Visit Yar'Adua Now, Soyinka Tells Jonathan (Daily Champion) – 01 May 2010
Nigeria: Amnesty - Yar'Adua's Major Legacy (Vanguard) – 06 May 2010
Jonathan Takes Oath of Office as President (Vanguard)– 06 May 2010
Season of Uncertainty by Richard Joseph and Alexandria Gillies (Current History Magazine) – 29 Apr 2010

Reuters Africa
New Nigerian leader pledges electoral reform by Randy Fabi and Felix Onuah – 06 May 2010

BBC World News
Nigerians lobby to be Jonathan's vice-president – 07 May 2010
Nigeria's Goodluck Jonathan sworn in as president – 06 May 2010
Nigerian President Yar'Adua dies after long illness by Martin Plaut – 06 May 2010
Obituary: President Yar'Adua of Nigeria – 06 May 2010

CNN International
Introducing Nigeria's new president: Goodluck Jonathan - 06 May 2010
Nigeria swears in acting president – 06 May 2010

CNNI Programs: Amanpour
Nigerian Acting President gives first interview to CNN – 14 Apr 2010
Host Christiane Amanpour interviews Nigeria’s newly sworn-in president Goodluck Jonathan during his visit to the U.S. for Obama’s Nuclear Security Summit 2010

The New York Times
Nigeria Swears In New Leader, Burying Predecessor - 06 May 2010
President of Nigeria Dies After Long Illness by Adam Nossiter – 05 May 2010

TIME Magazine
Umaru Musa Yar'Adua: Remembering Nigeria's Patient President by Alex Perry – 06 May 2010
Is Goodluck Jonathan the Answer to Nigeria's Woes? by Gilbert da Costa – 13 Feb 2010
The Violence in Nigeria: What's Behind the Conflict? by Meg Handley – 10 Mar 2010
The Two Sides of Lagos - Photo Essays - TIME
TIME photographer Thomas Dworzak explores the cultural divide in the Nigerian mega-city and financial capital

Foreign Policy Magazine, FP Passport Blog
Nigeria's government of ambiguity ends by Joshua Keating – 06 May 2010
Is Nigeria's president still alive? By Elizabeth Dickinson – 07 Jan 2010
The Real Tragedy in Nigeria's Violence by Jean Herskovits – 03 Aug 2009
A Violent Window of Opportunity by Mark L. Schneider and Nnamdi Obasi – 17 Jul 2009
OIL – The Long Goodbye - An FP Magazine special report – Sep/Oct 2009 issue

YaleGlobal Online Magazine
In Nigeria, Oil Wealth Delivers Grief by Salil Tripathi – 10 Jun 2008
The Rising and Falling Power of Hydrocarbon States by Dilip Hiro – 03 Jul 2007


Technorati tags (in beta):

'Half the Sky': New York Times Magazine special on how to help empower the world's women and girls

Cover: The New York Times Magazine
Sunday August 23, 2009


Saving the World’s Women: How changing the lives of women and girls in the developing world can change everything

This week’s edition of the New York Times Magazine (Aug. 23, 2009) is a special issue dedicated to women’s issues and gender equality for the world’s women. Featured on the cover of the magazine (print edition) is a photo of a woman from Burundi, a woman who could not read or write, who was able to get away from literal enslavement in her hut, escaping the grinding poverty of life in her village, with the help of a US $2 dollar micro-loan. Now she is the main breadwinner for her family and a shining example for her whole community. She is living proof of what women can achieve with even the smallest amount of help from people who care.

This special issue of the New York Times Magazine is an excellent tie-in to the series I am working on at present about US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Africa and her tour of the hospitals and clinics for violent rape victims and brutal attacks against women and girls (and now men and boys as well) in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

So I will not waste a lot of your time with my opinions on how we all can do more, much more, to support women and girls in developing countries around the globe. The New York Times Magazine writers and contributors have done such a lovely job of bringing these important issues and needs to the forefront. Here are recommended ‘must reads’ in this special issue of the magazine:

The Women’s Crusade by Nicholas D. Kristof and Sheryl WuDunn 08/17/09
Nicholas D. Kristof is a New York Times Op-Ed columnist and Sheryl WuDunn is a former Times correspondent who works in finance and philanthropy. This essay is adapted from their book “Half the Sky: Turning Oppression Into Opportunity for Women Worldwide,” which will be published next month by Alfred A. Knopf. You can learn more about “Half the Sky” at Nicholas Kristof’s blog ‘On the Ground’.

Related multimedia and photo slideshows:
A Powerful Truth (audio/photo slideshow: Nicholas Kristof narrates, photography by Katy Grannan, produced by Zahra Sethna)
Must See: Holding Up Half the Sky - Lens Blog
Halftheskymovement.org – official website for the book and the network

Questions for Ellen Johnson Sirleaf - Madame President - Interview 08/18/09
Deborah Soloman interviews Liberia’s president in the wake of Secretary Clinton’s visit, photography by photojournalist and blogger Glenna Gordon (Scarlett Lion). I shall be writing more about Glenna Gordon’s wonderful photography of the people of Uganda, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in my continuing series on Hillary Clinton in Africa.

Related posts at Glenna Gordon’s blog (Scarlett Lion)
Scarlett Lion - NTYM: Interview with Madame President 08/20/09
Scarlett Lion - “Ma Ellen n Hilary Clinton r Sisters” 08/14/09
Scarlett Lion - Context Africa: village life makes it to the mainstream media 08/11/09

New York Times Magazine (continued)
A New Gender Agenda interview by Mark Landler 08/18/09
Excerpts from an interview with Secretary Clinton shortly before here Africa trip re: the Obama administration’s strategies to help empower womaen and about the violence against women and girls in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo__

Q: I’m curious about what priorities you’re setting. Will the Obama administration have a signature issue — sex trafficking or gender-based violence or maternal mortality or education for girls — in the way that H.I.V./AIDS came to symbolize the Bush-administration strategy?

Clinton: We are having as a signature issue the fact that women and girls are a core factor in our foreign policy. If you look at what has to be done, in some societies, it is a different problem than in others. In some of the societies where women are deprived of political and economic rights, they have access to education and health care. In other societies, they may have been given the vote, but girl babies are still being put out to die.

So it’s not one specific program, so much as a policy. When it comes to our global health agenda, maternal health is now part of the Obama administration’s outreach. We’re very proud of the work this country has done, through Pepfar, on H.I.V./AIDS [the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief was begun by George W. Bush in 2003]. We’ve moved from an understanding of how to deal with global AIDS to recognizing it’s now a woman’s disease, because women are the most vulnerable and often have no power to protect themselves. And it’s increasingly younger women or even girls.

But women die every minute from poor maternal health care. You know, H.I.V./AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria — those are all, unfortunately, equal-opportunity killers. Maternal health is a woman’s issue; it’s a family issue; it’s a child issue. And for the United States to say to countries that have very high maternal mortality rates, “We care about the future of your children, and in order to do that, we care about the present of your women,” is a powerful statement.
…………

Q: Gender-based violence is an enormous issue in much of Africa, and in places like Congo, rape, as you know, is an instrument of war. How can you, or anybody else, hope to combat that?

Clinton: President Obama and I and the United States will not tolerate this continuation of wanton, senseless, brutal violence perpetrated against girls and women. We don’t know exactly what we can do, but we are going to be delivering some aid and some ideas about how to better organize the communities to deal with it. We’re going to sound the alarm that this is not all just unexpected and irrational.

These militias, which perpetrate a lot of these rapes and other horrific assaults on girls and women, are paid well, or realize the spoils of guarding the mines. Those mines, which are one of the great natural resources of the Congo, produce a lot of the materials that go into our cellphones and other electronics. There are tens of millions of dollars that go into these militias that, in effect, get translated into a sense of impunity that is then exercised against the weakest members of society.

The ambassador for war crimes, Steve Rapp, has the distinction of being among the first international prosecutors to win a case on gender violence, and I specifically wanted him to take on this role, because I want to highlight this issue.

End excerpts___

Related article at the New York Times:
Clinton Presses Congo on Minerals by Jeffrey Gettleman 08/10/09


Technorati tags:gender equality women's rights human rights Hillary Clinton Barack Obama Michelle Obama government foreign policy USA Africa Asia Middle East Americas Europe global voices

China's 'Freighter of Death' for Zimbabwe: the An Yue Jiang

Updates for April 24th - 18:44 CET

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer has arrived in South Africa and has forcefully stated the following during a press conference :

Tsvangarai won Zimbabwe election, says U.S. official (CNN, AP)

Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer was speaking in South Africa at the start of a visit to increase international pressure on Robert Mugabe's government, AP reported.

"We think in this situation we have a clear victor," she told AP, responding to questions about whether a power-sharing agreement could resolve the election impasse.

"Morgan Tsvangirai won and perhaps outright, at which point you don't need a government of national unity. You have to accept the result.

"There may need to be a political solution, a negotiated solution."

Chinese arms shipment for Zimbabwe being recalled to China

Several news agencies are reporting that the deadly cargo of Chinese-made arms and munitions on board the COSCO freighter 'An Yue Jiang' is being recalled to China ASAP. This is great news (if it can be verified to be really true) and it shows that even the PRC must bow to international pressure when enough pressure is being applied from all corners of the globe.

The New York Times reports that the Zimbabwe-bound ship heads back to China after being refused entry into ports all along the southern Africa coast, while Germany's Spiegel Online (international edition) reports that Germany's federal bank for development aid (KfW) had issued a seizure order against the arms shipment in Durban, South Africa due to the Zimbabwe government's non-payment of an outstanding loan of more than USD $60 million (approx. 40 million Euros). Read the April 22nd article 'Mugabe's Deadly Cargo: German Bank Attempted to Seize Chinese Arms Ship'.

Bloomberg.com reports that representatives from the German development bank KfW Group have since refuted that claim, saying it all was a terrible mistake by one of their 'loose cannon' collection agents based in South Africa. Germany, France, and other EU countries have to be rather careful with the government in Beijing these days according to this report at Speigel Online 'Balancing Tibet and Trade: EU Delegation Faces Difficult Tightrope in China'.

Beijing and PRC Chinese Bloggers Fight Back

China's state-owned news agency Xinhua reports on the An Yue Jiang scandal in the China Daily online 'China arms trade conforms to international laws and international obligations' while Global Voices Online over at Harvard Law School's Berkman Center has a roundup of Chinese bloggers commenting on the shipment of arms to Zimbabwe 'China: Netizens defend Zimbabwe arms sales'. Not much sympathy for democracy and human rights in Zimbabwe from that bunch.

That's all the updates for today folks. Thanks to everyone who did their bit to help stop that shipment of arms and munitions to Ol' Bob.


Original post from April 22nd

O.K., I’ve spent enough time over the past few days raising Hell at other people’s blogs about the Chinese arms shipment to Robert Mugabe and now it’s time to get down to business. How can the global blogger community together with concerned citizens of the world help stop a shipment of deadly Chinese arms and munitions to one of Africa’s most deranged and brutal dictators? Answer: by working together to hold high a Torch of Truth and Justice that can drive back the lies, the naked fear, and the darkness.

The Story about a Chinese Freighter of Death: The An Yue Jiang

Surely by now many of you have heard the news about the shipment of Chinese arms for the regime in Zimbabwe. In the wake of last month’s stolen elections in Zimbabwe Robert Mugabe’s “all-weather Nr. 1 friends in Beijing” decided that they needed to increase protection of their vast financial and political interests in the southern African country. For some reason the government of China feels that bullets instead of bread and other food staples is what the people of Zimbabwe need, a country where millions of people are facing mass starvation and some have been reduced to killing and eating rats.

About one week ago a rust bucket of a Chinese freighter arrived at the South African sea port of Durban, loaded with seventy-seven tons of munitions and arms for the Zimbabwean Ministry of Defence. The name of the ship: the An Yue Jiang. The freighter is owned and operated by COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Company, Beijing PRC). Sky News aerial video of the ship of doom. If you live near a container harbor or have travelled along a highway anywhere in the world you will have seen the name COSCO written on the sides of freight containers from China. COSCO, a state-owned Chinese shipping conglomerate, owns more than 600 ocean merchant vessels operating in over 140 countries around the globe.

The shipment of arms and munitions from the People’s Republic of China would have gone unnoticed as so many arms shipments through South Africa to Zimbabwe have done over the last two decades if it were not for an alert and courageous “concerned citizen” and the investigative follow-up by a local editor at South Africa’s Noseweek magazine, not to be confused with Newsweek magazine. According to statements made by Noseweek editor Martin Welz who obtained a copy of the ship’s cargo manifest, the consignment for the Government of Zimbabwe included the following:

3 million+ rounds of ammunition for Chinese-made AK-47 assault rifles
1500 rocket-propelled grenades (RPG’s)
3500 mortar rounds, mortar tubes
Ejection seats and other spare parts for Chinese-made fighter aircraft

Upon leaking the news about the arms shipment to the South African public and SAPA (SA Press Association) all hell broke loose in Durban and in Pretoria. Quick action by civic organizations such as the Southern Africa Litigation Centre and the head of South Africa’s powerful trade union SATAWU (South African Transport and Allied Worker’s Union) prevented the offloading and transit shipment of arms and munitions to Zimbabwe. In addition, the International Action Network on Small Arms (IANSA) together with the Open Society Institute and the Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa and other regional organizations lodged complaints with the South African Government to prohibit the transport of Chinese arms to Zimbabwe.

Last week, while visiting New York for a special meeting of the UN Security Council, South African President Thabo Mbeki sunk deeper into controversy over his very poor handling of the crisis in Zimbabwe. Mbeki made the following statements when queried by reporters at the UNSC press briefing of April 16th about the Chinese shipment of arms for Mugabe:

Quote of the Week April 13th–19th:
Thabo Mbeki, President of the Republic of South Africa

Question: Mr President, a shipment of weapons from China en-route to Zimbabwe has been found in a Durban harbour?

Answer: Well, ask the Chinese Ambassador. Durban harbour handles goods for many countries on the continent. If you say there are weapons that have arrived from China in the Durban Harbour, I think you should ask the Chinese. There might be a consignment of coal that is being exported to the Congo or something, it is a port, those weapons would have had nothing to do with South Africa. I really don't know what Zimbabwe imports from China or what China imports from Zimbabwe.

PoliticsWeb (South Africa)
Full Transcript of President Thabo Mbeki’s UNSC press conference April 16, 2007

There you have it. The Chinese Ambassador to the Republic of South Africa has the lowdown on all shipments of Chinese goods through South Africa to Zimbabwe. The President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, doesn’t have a clue about what types of goods transit his country enroute to neighboring landlocked countries. This of course is a damn lie. It is almost a bigger lie than the one reported in The Economist’ article “Crisis (in Zimbabwe)? What crisis?” Mbeki’s reputation as a fair and competent 'point man' for international negotiations to settle the political and humanitarian crisis inside Zimbabwe is in the toilet.

Second Best Quote(s) of the Week April 13th-19th:
Zimbabwe’s Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga (Zimbabwe’s version of comical Ali) responding to queries from Reuters:

Zimbabwe's deputy information minister, Bright Matonga, said on Friday that no party had the right to stop the shipment.

"Every country has got a right to acquire arms. There is nothing wrong with that. If they are for Zimbabwe, they will definitely come to Zimbabwe," he told South Africa's SAFM radio.

"How they are used, when they are going to be used is none of anybody's business."

For its part, China is trying to prevent the controversy from fuelling criticism over its human rights record and rule in Tibet ahead of hosting the Olympics in August. Violent protests have followed the Olympic torch across the globe.

China's Foreign Ministry said in a short faxed statement to Reuters that it had seen the reports about the ship, but "did not understand the actual situation".

"China and Zimbabwe maintain normal trade relations. What we want to stress is China has always had a prudent and responsible attitude towards arms sales, and one of the most important principles is not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries," the statement said.

Read more at Reuters India “Zimbabwe arms ship heads for Angola, Mozambique says” (04/19/08)


If you give a damn about the future of Zimbabwe, speak out forcefully

The Number One Problem at the moment is tracking and locating the position of the COSCO freighter of death, the An Jue Jiang. The people over at Sokwanele who publish the excellent ‘This is Zimbabwe’ blog have organized a “Stop the An Yue Jiang” global action campaign. Since early this afternoon bloggers and readers from around the world have been leaving comments and advice on how to help stop this deadly arms shipment, including ways to track the freighter as it slinks its way along the southern Africa coastline making sure to stay safely in international waters.

IANSA has begun a petition to collect names and email addresses to do the same, to stop the Chinese freighter An Yue Jiang from delivering weapons to Zimbabwe. Also, as of this morning international trade unions representing dock workers and longshoreman in countries around the globe have begun to join the effort to stop this shipment of bullets for Mugabe, a force of tens-of-thousands of blue collar workers that even the mighty Red Army is afraid to go up against. Longshoreman around the globe teaming up with bloggers? This must be another first in the history of the blogosphere and online social networks.

While the international news media is focused on the Countdown to Beijing and the next stop for the Olympic Farce Relay and worldwide protests against China’s human rights record (and the “I Love China No Matter What” counter- protests), an important and tense drama is playing out on the high seas of the South Atlantic. The regime in Beijing and their partners in African capitals, the bankers and global financial investors and businesspeople, politicians and political partners of the PRC would love for this latest Chinese Arms for Zimbabwe scandal to go away quietly.

Focusing on news about the row over the Olympic Games and the Chinese crackdown on Tibet is fine. Protesting against Beijing’s dubious support for the murderous regime of Omar al-Bashir in Sudan is the correct thing to do. Raising hell about China’s support for the brutal military rulers of Burma re: their crackdowns on innocent monks and civilians in the desperate country is also the right thing to do. Just don’t forget about the people of Zimbabwe who are facing continuing years of misery and brutal, repressive rule by an octogenarian despot who refuses to accept the democratic vote of no confidence delivered by Zimbabwean voters last month under threats and violence.

Hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans are facing death by starvation and state-sanctioned terror and brutality at the hands of Robert Mugabe’s thugs and goons. China’s ambassadors and diplomatic corps in Africa, its soldiers and military advisors seen patrolling the streets in Mutare and Chinese soldiers based at undisclosed locations within the country, will simply look on while protecting China’s economic and political interests in Zimbabwe. After all, for the regime in Beijing and for too many of the 750,000 Chinese merchants and workers in Africa today, business is business. It’s a win-win situation for everybody, isn’t it?


Related articles and online resources
Bloggers and independent media at the front

This is Zimbabwe – Sokwanele Civic Action Support Group
Action: Stop the An Yue Jiang from delivering Chinese weapons to Mugabe, 04/21/08
We call them guns, Mugabe calls them ‘campaign materials’, 04/18/08
Chinese soldiers seen in Mutare, 04/16/08
Archived updates on the An Yue Jiang

China Digital Times (independent news and editorials about China)
Chinese troops are on the streets of Zimbabwean city, witness says – 04/19/08
China’s small arms sales to Sudan increased as Darfur violence escalated – 03/13/08
EU Parliament disinvests in Petrochina/CNPC over China’s funding of Sudan regime – 03/16/08
If you build it, they will come (Mozambique) – 03/31/08
China Returns to Africa: A Superpower and a Continent Embrace (book review), 04/19/08

My Heart’s in Accra (Ethan Zuckerman)
Watching, Waiting – 04/18/08
Zimbabwe: the endless endgame – 04/17/08

Global Voices Online
Zimbabwe: Chinese troops in Mutare? – 04/20/08

SW Africa Radio (UK) – the independent voice of Zimbabwe on shortwave radio

Now Public
Mugabe: Chinese Military is a Welcome Ally on the Streets of Zimbabwe, 04/19/08

The Zimbabwean Pundit
Politics of change and change of politics: Zim elections ’08 – 04/11/08

The Word Wright (South Africa)
The China-Zimbabwe Arms Deal: a storm in a teacup or the tip of the iceberg? – 04/19/08


The International Mainstream Media & Press

The New York Times
Zimbabwe Arms Shipped by China Spark an Uproar, 04/19/08

The Mail & Guardian (South Africa)
Ship with Arms for Zimbabwe Leaves Durban after Court Ruling, 04/19/08
Zille: Don’t Give Chinese Arms to Zimbabwe, 04/18/08

24.com (South Africa)
Zimbabwe Generals Meet over Arms Shipment, 04/21/08

The Guardian (UK) – Comment is Free
Mugabe’s Gall is Breathtaking by Guguletho Moyo, 04/18/08
Chinese ship carries arms cargo to Mugabe regime, 04/18/08

The International Herald Tribune
South Africa and Zimbabwe: The Silence of Mbeki – 04/17/08

Zimbabwean Journalists (independent journalists based in the UK)
Union in South Africa Refuses to Offload Zimbabwean Arms, 04/17/08
Zimbabwe buys fighter jets from China, 08/22/06

Times Online (UK)
Dockers refuse to unload China arms shipment for Zimbabwe, 04/18/08

BBC News
Zimbabwe arms ship quits South Africa, 04/19/08

Reuters India
Zimbabwe arms ship heads for Angola, Mozambique says – 04/19/08

The Economist (UK)
Zimbabwe: Crisis? What Crisis? – 04/17/08
Zimbabwe: Africa’s Shame – 04/17/08

CNN
Zimbabwe arms ship headed for Angola, 04/19/08
South Africa won’t block Chinese weapons for Zimbabwe, 04/17/08

TIME.com
How Long Will Mugabe Hang On? – 04/03/08


Foundations and organizations and government resources

Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC)
Zimbabwe eager to strengthen economic ties with China – 09/28/06

IANSA (International Action Network on Small Arms)
Stop the Zimbabwe Arms Shipment petition
SADC must detain Chinese arms to Zimbabwe, 04/14/08

Open Society Institute – Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa
Eyes on Zimbabwe special program, Eyes on Zimbabwe blog

The Jamestown Foundation
Zimbabwe: China’s African Ally, 07/05/05


Archived (older) related news articles

PBS Frontline World
Congo: On the trail of an AK-47, China’s Calling Card in Africa, 08/30/07

SW Africa Radio (UK) – the independent voice of Zimbabwe on shortwave radio
(Zimbabwe’s) Purchase of Chinese Fighter Jets Makes Mockery of UN Humanitarian Appeal, 08/30/06

New Zimbabwean
Mugabe spends $200 million on new fighter jets, 11/03/06

The Times Online (UK)
The sumptuous retirement mansion Mugabe has no intention of using, 03/30/05

Sokwanele (Zimbabwe Civil Support organization)
Mugabe and His Cronies Living Large at Expense of the Masses, 09/14/04

The Telegraph (UK)
Mugabe’s new palace in the land of hunger, 08/26/03


Additional resources about the historical maritime figure Admiral Zheng He

This is a story about the great Ming Dynasty explorer Admiral Zheng He as described so eloquently by the distinguished Chinese scholar Dr. Jin Wu.

The An Yue Jiang is a far cry from the technological genius of Admiral Zeng He’s treasure ships (PBS Nova video), but then again, China ruled under the Great Ming emperors was a very different place from the China we know today.

UCLA International Institute
Zheng He’s Voyages of Discovery

National Geographic
China’s Great Armada and Admiral Zeng He (July 2005)

PBS Nova – Sultan’s Lost Treasure (January 2001)

Technorati tags:Africa Zimbabwe Robert Mugabe China human rights politics elections violence torture hunger poverty arms military Global Voices

Laos: A Cry to Heaven Part 3 - Geopolitics & Money

Note: I was getting really bummed out for several days in trying to successfully bring this sad story about the Lao Hmong to an end and press on with new material. But then I read some news today about the continuing struggles of desperate people trying to escape the oppressive regime in Burma (CNN) only to lose their lives through suffocation in an overheated, abandoned freight container at the Thai border. The independent Thai newspaper The Nation (Bangkok) has a good editorial about the tragedy “Deaths of Burmese bring shame on us”. The Irrawady news magazine published an earlier report titled “Migrants are Not Commodities” about Thailand’s love-hate relationship with illegal and legal migrant workers from Burma, Cambodia, and Laos. Human trafficking for prostitution and dirt cheap (slave) labor is becoming a huge problem down in paradise.

The Lao Hmong refugees featured in this series of posts have been on the run since 1975 after suffering decades of civil war and the loss of over one third of their people, and they continue to fight for their lives to this very day. Who am I to think that I should give up on their story when they have been able to hold on for so long?

One thing that I have learned about this little known humanitarian crisis is that nothing is as simple as it seems. The historical and cultural relationships between the various ethnic groups of the Mekong region, the way governments function domestically and interact with neighboring countries, the geo-politics of foreign governments and international aid and development organizations, foreign investors and businesspeople: all play an important role in the lives of “the forgotten veterans” and the 500 million other people living in SE Asia today.

So let’s press on, shall we, and see where this interesting story leads us.

Part 3 of “Laos: A Cry to Heaven in the Land of a Million Elephants”
Read Part 1 and Part 2 of the series

The growing political and economic relationships between the Lao PDR, China, Thailand, and Burma (Myanmar) have been garnering attention in the international press over the past several months, especially after the successful conclusion of the Greater Mekong Sub-region Summit in Vientiane, Laos in March. According to an April 7th Associated Press article, Laos Fears China’s Footprint, the People’s Republic of China has been the subject of deep concern among citizens in the Lao capital Vientiane. Their angst is over a dubious “land for loans” deal between the Lao regime and the Chinese government in exchange for building a new sports complex on prime natural wetlands on the outskirts of the Lao capital. Reuters reports these same fears extend to villagers living in rural parts of the country because of growing foreign investment in rubber plantations and the agri-business sector. The Lao Deputy Prime Minister was forced to give a rare public news conference in February to defuse Vientiane residents’ fears of a “Chinese invasion”. KPL Lao News Agency had reported that a rumored 50,000 Chinese workers were poised to move into the capital city of 460,000 residents.

This has not been a good week for China in the world press and international news media as we all know, and to make matters worse India is continuing to move in on China’s economic and political territory in Southeast Asia.

So where does America and other countries fit into this picture of renewed economic growth and progress toward better governance in the Mekong region? I would have guessed that the U.S. has little influence over certain Mekong countries due to the terrible legacy of the Vietnam War and thorny issues such as UXO (unexploded ordnance) cleanup and MIA/POW’s. The same legacy would presumably apply to France (1st Indochina War) and America’s close allies in the Vietnam War: South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand.

Presuming that the U.S.A. has limited political and economic leverage with key GMS countries (Vietnam, Laos and Burma) would be logical, but ill informed. Here are two views from one well know Southeast Asian scholar that tell a different story.


Shifting Alliances and Economic Opportunity in Southeast Asia
(Continued from Part 2)

China is very eager to increase trade with the GMS countries and expand its influence there. In a report published in 2005 by Dr. Ian Storey, a fellow at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, he states the following:

China and Vietnam's Tug of War over Laos by Dr. Ian Storey
AsiaMedia newsletter at UCLA Asia Institute – June 7, 2005

In at least one Southeast Asian country -- Laos -- the competition for influence is not between the US and China, but between historic rivals China and Vietnam, writes Ian Storey

Much has been written on the competition for influence in Southeast Asia among the Great Powers, particularly the United States and China, and how Beijing has made significant inroads in this respect over the past few years. However, in at least one Southeast Asian country – Laos – the competition for influence is not between the U.S. and China, but between historic rivals China and Vietnam. The United States is not a major player in Laos – its interests are narrowly focused on resolving Prisoner of War/Missing in Action (POW/MIA) issues left over from the Vietnam War, and securing Laotian cooperation in the "war on terrorism." In fact, until December 2004 Laos was one of only three countries (the other two being North Korea and Cuba) denied Normal Trade Relations (NTR) with the United States. Although Japan is the largest provider of aid to Laos, it has not translated this largesse into political influence.

The Lao People's Democratic Republic (LPDR) is a small, underdeveloped country situated in the heart of mainland Southeast Asia. As the only landlocked country in the region, it is bordered by China, Vietnam, Thailand, Burma, and Cambodia. Subsistence farming employs more than 80 percent of its 5.7 million people, reducing Laos to the status of one of the poorest countries in Asia. Laos is ranked 135th in the United Nation's 2004 Human Development Index of 177 countries, the lowest of any member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which Laos joined in 1997. The LPDR has a per capita income of around $300.

Laos is one of only five remaining communist countries in the world. Since its foundation in December 1975, the LPDR has been ruled by the Lao People's Revolutionary Party (LPRP). For the first decade of its existence, Laos had a "special relationship" with Vietnam which was built on the close links forged between the LPRP and Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) in the 1930s. These links enabled Hanoi to exercise a controlling influence over the Lao communist movement during the "thirty years struggle" (1945-1975), despite the fact that Beijing essentially underwrote the Pathet Lao's (the LPRP's military wing) war effort. In 1977, Laos and Vietnam entered an alliance which caused severe strains in Lao-PRC relations. These strains were exacerbated in 1978 when Laos supported Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia.

From the mid-1980s, however, Laos sought to decrease its dependence on Vietnam by reaching out to the United States, China, and ASEAN countries. Vientiane's motive was primarily economic: aid from the USSR and Vietnam was drying up, and Laos looked to more economically advanced countries to help rejuvenate the moribund economy. In the post-Cold War era, three countries dominate Lao foreign relations: Vietnam, Thailand, and China.

Although Vietnam is no longer the cornerstone of Lao foreign policy, close personal relations between Laotian and Vietnamese leaders have ensured the survival of the "special relationship." It was Hanoi that enabled the LPRP to achieve power, something elderly LPRP cadres are not apt to forget. Although the 1977 alliance was allowed to lapse in 2002, the two countries continue to maintain close security links. Vietnam is also Laos' second biggest trading partner.

Thailand's interests in Laos are predominantly economic. Prior to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, cultural and linguistic advantages enabled Thailand to establish itself as Laos' primary economic partner. However, this situation was not met with unbridled enthusiasm by the Lao government, which feared becoming over-dependent on the Thai economy. These fears proved prescient; when the Thai economy buckled in mid-1997, the ripple effect on Laos in terms of lost trade and investment was severe. Nevertheless, Thailand remains Laos' leading trade partner, taking nearly 50 percent of its exports. But Bangkok's political influence is limited since Laotians perceive Thais to be overbearing and arrogant, and Lao nationalism tends to orient itself against Thailand.

In 1988, Beijing and Vientiane normalized relations, and since the Asian Financial Crisis China's profile in the LPDR has increased considerably. China's interests in Laos are threefold. The first is China's strategic imperative of fostering close relations with all countries along its borders. Beijing's ultimate aim is to displace the political influence of other countries in Laos, primarily Vietnam but also Thailand. Second, Laos' geographic position makes it a useful conduit through which Chinese goods from its Southwest provinces can flow into the Thai market. Since 2000, Beijing has paid special attention to the development of Laos' transportation infrastructure, particularly highways linking China with Thailand. Vientiane itself has been keen to promote itself as a "landlinked" country rather than a landlocked one, though it recognizes that China and Thailand stand to gain the most. Third, the PRC has expressed a strong desire to increase imports of natural resources from Laos, including timber, iron ore, copper, gold, and gemstones.

END excerpts___ Links to external websites added to original text for clarity

Now have a look at the Geopolitical Strategic View of the region from the same expert two years later in a paper published for the US Army War College – Strategic Studies Institute.

The United States and China-ASEAN Relations: All Quiet on the Southeast Asian Front by Dr. Ian Storey, October 2007

Summary

While the overall security situation in Southeast Asia is something of a mixed bag with grounds for both optimism and pessimism, one of the most encouraging trends in recent years has been the development of the Association for Southeast Asian Nation’s (ASEAN) re-lations with major external powers. Relations between China and ASEAN in particular have demonstrated a marked improvement over the past decade, thanks to a combination of burgeoning economic ties, perceptions of China as a more constructive and responsible player in regional politics, and Beijing’s “charm offensive” toward Southeast Asia. Overall, the development of ASEAN-China relations poses few security challenges to the United States: Good relations between China and ASEAN enhance regional stability, and a stable Southeast Asia is clearly in America’s interests, especially with Washington focused on events in the Middle East. Although ASEAN-China relations are very positive, this does not necessarily mean the United States is losing influence in Southeast Asia, or that ASEAN members are “bandwagoning” with China. In fact, they are hedging by keeping America engaged and facilitating a continued U.S. military presence. While ASEAN-China relations are relatively benign today, several sources of potential friction could create problems in Sino-U.S. relations: these are Taiwan, Burma, and the South China Sea dispute. This monograph examines each of these scenarios in turn.
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Depending on one’s perspective, Southeast Asia in the early 21st century is either a glass half full or a glass half empty. The glass is half full in the sense that for the majority of countries in Southeast Asia, these are relatively stable, peaceful, and prosperous times. The economies of the region have either recovered fully, or are well on their way to full recovery, from the disastrous 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis. Singapore and Malaysia have registered strong economic growth, while Vietnam has become the darling of foreign investors, and in 2006 its gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was second only to the PRC in Asia. Indonesia and the Philippines are experiencing good levels of growth (5-6 percent), while even Laos and Cambodia are achieving respectable levels of GDP growth. At the political level, the region has witnessed smooth leadership transitions in several countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam) and, most importantly, democracy is being consolidated in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest, and arguably most important, country. Indonesia is also witnessing perhaps the world’s most successful peace process in Aceh. At the security level, although territorial disputes continue to simmer, there is no danger that any of these will result in outright conflict. Indeed the chance of interstate conflict between the ASEAN states is almost (but not entirely) unthinkable. Transnational terrorist networks such as Jemaah Islamiyah have been disrupted (but not destroyed); piracy attacks are down thanks partly to the cooperative efforts of Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia; and in the Philippines, there are cautious grounds for optimism that a peace deal for Mindanao can be concluded in 2007. At the corporate level, ASEAN has embraced a vision for the future—the ASEAN Community 2015—and efforts are underway to frame a charter for the next ASEAN summit in November 2007 which will give the organization legal underpinnings for the first time ever.

However, these developments do not mean that this observer has adopted a pollyannaish view of Southeast Asia. The glass is half empty in the sense that the region faces a host of serious security challenges, particularly transnational threats such as terrorism; communal and sectarian violence; and illegal trafficking in drugs, small arms, and people. Politically, the September 19, 2006, coup in Thailand, and continued rumors of coups in the Philippines, underscored the fragility of democratic institutions in Southeast Asia. Except for one or two countries, poor governance—corruption, lack of transparency and accountability, political instability, absence of rule of law, and ineffective government—remains widespread across the region. And while Aceh is a success story, the level of violence in Southern Thailand is escalating at an alarming rate. Moreover, some countries in Southeast Asia show characteristics of near-state failure, with Burma being the leading example. And while ASEAN has adopted a clear blueprint for the future, it remains to be seen whether the radical proposals suggested at the ASEAN Summit in Cebu, the Philippines, in January 2007, will survive the negotiations and expected opposition from newer members such as Burma.

One area where optimism is well-founded is ASEAN’s relations with major external powers such as the United States, China, Japan, and India. Relations between ASEAN and these countries have arguably never been better, particularly at the government-to-government level. ASEAN as a group conducts regular meetings and summits with its external partners, and several—including China, Japan, and India—have already acceded to the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) which is basically a code of conduct that governs relations among the ASEAN states and external powers. ASEAN remains in the driver’s seat in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and East Asia Summit (EAS) processes. Trade between the ASEAN states and China, Japan, and the United States is booming, and free trade negotiations between the member states and these countries will likely bolster this trend. At the security level, there is unprecedented cooperation between the ASEAN members and extra-regional powers, particularly over transnational security threats.

As both sides are happy to concede, relations between ASEAN and the PRC are at an historic high. Trade and investment ties are booming, and the PRC is widely perceived in Southeast Asia as the Asian growth engine that is largely responsible for helping the ASEAN economies recover from the 1997 economic crisis. The two sides have concluded a raft of agreements, developed a roadmap for future relations, and relegated formerly contentious security issues to the backburner. Overall, the burgeoning relationship between ASEAN and China is, I would aver, good news for the United States. The United States has a vested interest in a peaceful, stable, and prosperous Southeast Asia. It allows the United States to focus on more pressing issues in the Middle East (Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions) and Northeast Asia. Indeed, the security dynamics in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia are very different. Whereas in Northeast Asia the major security issues stem from bilateral disputes and rivalries (i.e., North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, China and Japan), in Southeast Asia security issues are largely internal in nature (separatism, insurgency, and terrorism). By and large, these are not issues that create severe tensions between Southeast Asian states and external powers, and, on the contrary, they have engendered good cooperation.

There are, in my view, few potential challenges for the United States vis-à-vis improved ASEAN-China relations, at least in the short-to-medium term. Although China’s economic, political, and even military profile has been rising in Southeast Asia for more than a decade, this does not mean that the ASEAN states have lost interest in the United States, or that the PRC is on the cusp of becoming Southeast Asia’s regional hegemon. Southeast Asian countries value the United States as a trade and investment partner and, perhaps more importantly, still view it as Asia’s key off-shore balancer.

End excerpts____

At the end of the day, it’s all about the money. Commerce, trade and political stability will trump ‘human rights’ concerns every time.

Also have a look at the following articles and reports:
Heritage Foundation: Enabling ASEAN’s Economic Vision
China Development Brief: Communist capital flows downstream: China’s aid to Laos

End Part 3: A Cry to Heaven in the Land of a Million Elephants
Part 4 coming soon

Technorati tags:Southeast Asia Asia Laos Thailand Vietnam USA China Burma globalization business natural resources corruption veterans war politics foreign affairs human rights refugees Global Voices